The recent research carried out by Shawei He et al., published in Transport Policy, has demonstrated a comprehensive comparison among the existing sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) by considering their production costs and the efficacy of mitigating carbon emissions. This work is completed jointly by the research team of Shawei He including two of his Master students from the College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, as well as researchers from the Hongkong Polytechnic University, the University of International Business and Economics, and the Civil Aviation University of China.
Figure 1 Comparison of carbon abatement costs among SAFs
This investigation aims to assess the trade-off between cost increases and emission reductions throughout the SAF lifecycle. A stepwise multiple linear regression model is utilized to forecast the production costs associated with 29 distinct SAF production pathways. Furthermore, an all-encompassing model has been developed to determine the costs associated with carbon mitigation over time. The findings demonstrate that the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway is most cost-effective, with the lowest production cost pegged at $1.45 per liter. In contrast, the carbon mitigation cost for the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) pathway is the most favorable, calculated at $459 per ton of CO2 equivalent. This study extends current cost analyses to the prediction of future production expenses, highlighting the significance of temporal variations in mitigation costs. The findings provide customized recommendations, such as for developing SAF with different pathways with uneven priorities.
Transport Policy is a high-reputation journal in transportation research aimed at designing and sharing innovative policy and management practices, and application bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. It is ranked Q1 by SCImago, FMS A,ABS 2, and with an impact factor of 5.3. It is also the official journal of the World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS).
This paper can be cited as:
He, S., Dong, K., Hou, M., Song, H., Zhu, T., Li, A., Jiang, C. (2025). Fueling the future: A comparative analysis of sustainable aviation fuel pathways. Transport Policy, 174: 103843.
A complete version of this paper can be accessed via:
//www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X25003865
Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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